This would have been a hell of a prediction had I finished this after the Major like planned…
Hard Breach operators have been an essential part of Attacker lineups since the beginning of Siege. The ability to open reinforced walls through a mixture of fuel, metal oxide, and metal powder in just the right way, is potent for the Attacking side. It’s part of the reason why every operator and gadget that has the ability to do so is added slowly. The impact of another way to open reinforced walls is inherently powerful. Every time an op like Hibana, Maverick, or Ace gets added the power of Attackers increases. Yet after the first Stage of 2022 and the Charlotte Major, hard breach operators seem to be on the decline.
This isn’t as surprising as you might think. Through gradual shifts in how Defenders control the map and the addition of the hard breach charge, teams have been able to run no hard breach ops for a long time but chose not to. The real reason for this ‘sudden’ trend is the addition of Attacker Repick. The influence of Repick is immense, but its effects on hard breacher’s mostly comes down to risk management.
Before Attacker repick it was a gamble to bring no dedicated HB. If the opponent doesn’t go to the site you expect, everything falls apart. But now you get to capitalize on droning out the site as an Attacker. Oregon Basement only has 2-3 hatches and doesn’t need reinforced walls to be opened for the Attack to execute, so why not bring a Ying or Zero over a Hibana? Better utility for the execute and all the hatches get opened.
Now this is just one example on one bombsite of one map. But it is representative of the thinking that many teams now have. By working around the limitations of hard breach charges teams can bring more utility. Depending on the site, that’s a worthwhile trade, especially considering the operators that have access to the gadget. Instead of Thermite’s 556 you get to use a Buck’s C8 or Zero’s SC3000. What an increase in firepower, not even counting the value that teams can get out of the utility of a Skeleton Key or Argus Cam as well.
But as already mentioned, it isn’t only the hard breach charge that is causing this shift away from the ops. It’s also in response to the way Defense sets up. There’s been a gradual shift in the way Defense creates holds. Gone are the days of bunkering down on site and leaving the roamers to run around like headless chickens, no. That just gives the Attack a chance to clinically set up the execute right outside your doors. Rather than wait inside the reinforced walls of a site doomed to fall, why not take the fight to the Attackers? Make them uncomfortable, force them to use time, utility, and their very lives in order to set up that execute. Sure, anchoring gets more dangerous, but the pressure applied to the Attackers is greater than that of the Defenders.
No map exemplifies this mentality more than Villa. You can have a Trophy/Statuary hold that fully reinforces triple wall or one that creates a line of sight into closet. Aggressive Defenders would rather create a line of sight directly into the bombsite than let Attackers enter the building for free. And once you get into closet as an Attacker, good luck getting out into master bedroom without sacrificing at least some of your HP. But it isn’t just Trophy/Statuary holds that have evolved on the map, Aviator/Games has seen a similar evolution. Players in vault contest study door and have been for a year or two. Anyone who tries to open games wall from study does so at extreme risk to their own safety. Even if you take Hibana or Ace to avoid entering the room, the Defender still shoots the gadget off the wall for free. Villa isn’t a map that sees Attack running no Hard Breach, but it’s the best example showing the Defense getting more aggressive with their site holds to pressure the Attack.
While this trend has been relatively small throughout Stage 1, relegated to underdog teams like Beastcoast trying to slip sneaky one-offs in, there was an uptick in teams running no hard breach at the Charlotte Major, and even more play in Stage 2. Notably Astralis the runner up at Charlotte, have been at the forefront of developing this style of Attack. The team consistently runs lineups with no hard breach on maps like Kafe, Bank, Skyscraper, and Oregon. Throughout the entire major including big matches like the semifinals they were running no dedicated Hard Breachers. On the first match alone, they ran no HB in both overtime attacks to win out the map. Since the Major Astralis has continued to develop their Attacks on multiple maps. In the final match of NAL Stage 2, they frequently ran a Ying with HB charges over a dedicated HB op on Oregon against DZ, and given their overwhelming victory…it seems like the extra utility worked pretty well.
Other teams like DarkZero have run lineups like this, though far less consistently and only on Villa. TSMFTX also jumped on this trend in the NAL, though their no breach lineup was on Chalet and could have simply been a desperation play given their circumstances. During Stage 1 it was only teams like Beastcoast that were running specific strats as examples, but most of those were clearly one off pocket strats, save their Bank basement lineup. A single site on a single map. The Major and Stage 2 has proven that this trend isn’t disappearing, but becoming more common.
Of course this trend towards taking no hard breach ops isn’t one that will ever take over the game as the new meta. It will grow in popularity for specific teams and against specific sites, but never more than that. The attacker meta on Villa has continued to use Hibana and Ace despite their apparent lack of use because 1) they’re still really good ops outside of the primary gadget and 2) its better to have that dedicated utility when you need it. Kafe, Bank, and Oregon have been the 3 maps seeing the most play with no HB, but you’ll see a Theme Park attack every once in a while too.